Change: Elections 2008

• The race
• Change
• The economy
• Renewable energy investment - creating a better economy
• Medical care - creating a better economy
• World leadership
• The political paradigm
• The nature of change in politics

The race

For once I actually like 60% of the candidates running for President. It's a first - usually I'm left with a choice between two evils. For once they have discussed issues, although currently popularity has become the issue. And in the issue discussion we begin to see what kind of person the candidate is. We see their approach to problems, although the details are sketchy. Are they compassionate? Do they have realistic answers? Do they understand the issues? Do they understand politics and the world and how to lead? Do they know how to boost the economy?

Typically candidates promise everything... and accomplish little. One thing I have learned by experience is that in a given term (whether in business or politics), it is almost impossible for more than three or four major objectives to be reached. The candidate who is promising everything to everyone is schmoozing the crowd and if he attempts all he promises he will lack enough focus to be effective. And then things change. Bush 2, after September 11, let the war against terror define his presidency, which then became defined by the war in Iraq. Trillions of dollars later we are slightly more secure. We're heavily in debt, but not secure.

Bush also hoped to reform Social Security in the conservative Republican image. But the uncooperative spirit of the decades long Republican dominatrix, and the Iraq war failure, resulted in a flush of Republican miscreants, and this ushered in a field of Democrats who simply said no. The Bush plan was just more GPO scrap paper.

The US people entered this election period with the priorities of health coverage, ending the war in Iraq, and resolving the energy crisis. In recent months, the economy has overshadowed those priorities. Now popularity has risen to the fore. Things change. Even the subject of change has become a priority among many. Congress won't cooperate and can't get things done. Time for a change.

The issues that are high on everyone's priority list are well known to the candidates: Health care, economy, Irag war, and now change and personality. They will all eventually say that they are ready to take on these issues, even if their approach is useless. Everyone at a masquerade party looks like an archetypal figure - a fairy princess, a Frankenstein, a vampire - but everyone knows that they are the same old person underneath the mask. US voters always want to see detailed plans, but most candidates prefer to stay non-committal. But their approach is telling.
See the CNN issues poll at http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/12/11/rel12e.pdf and the NY times article on the public view of candidates http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/us/politics/11poll.html.

Change

What about change? Months ago I stated that the interest in Obama signifies a significant move to the left - a major change. Obama is igniting the fires of idealism and collecting a major following among the youth and the frustrated. Perhaps Obama is the right person to lead change. But what does that take?

I've seen a lot of change. It often occurs as a knee-jerk reaction and happens with little planning. Unfortunately that kind of change usually fails. Something new is tried without the guidance of wisdom and leadership, it fails, and people get even more frustrated. Often it simply happens too fast because people don't understand how to control change and make it work. In the 1970s, Congress threw legislation, and sometimes money, at many problems. Sometimes the problems got worse because of it. But at least we learned from that experience.

We tried replacing much of the Congress in the 1980s with fresh idealistic faces who were ready to change the world. The new Congressmen beat their heads against the wall of the politics and power of those Congressmen who were well entrenched, until they gave up trying to create change. Change doesn't happen just because you put new people in place. But did they actually succeed in the long term? In the late '80s and early '90s, the well entrenched left, saying they didn't know how to do this new style of politics.

Change is possible. It takes leadership, it takes a mandate from the people, it takes wisdom to select the right type of change, and it takes the skill of someone who can guide the process and pace. Lacking any of those four qualities, change goes awry. Whether or not Obama has those qualities, or any of the other candidates, is something we need to find out.

The economy

The economy has become the number one issue. The wage race toward bottom is causing many not to be able to afford housing and products. We have a housing crisis. Wages are not keeping up, job creation is not keeping up, and people can't afford to purchase, or even stay in the homes they buy. Ill-advised lending practices probably were formulated on the belief that the economy would put money in people's pockets and all would be well. It isn't happening. At the same time, the divide has been growing for years between the wealthy and have-nots. Why?

Bush did everything possible to promote corporate earnings, in the belief that it would create a strong economy (Reaganomics). Well, the economy is strong, but here is what is happening. Corporations and investors are getting the money and it is staying in their tight circle. Investors earn money and reinvest it to earn even more. Wages stay the same. Companies buy each other, feathering investor's pockets and creating efficiencies (profits to investors and acquisitions). The money is moving, but not toward wage earners. So jobs don't pay well and people have less and less spending power. Oil has become a hysteria commodity and quadrupled in price in 5 years. The housing market collapsed and there are no projections for a rebound in the short term. Automobile sales are slow. Year end retail sales were lower than expectations. People fear that we are entering a recession. And the Fed may lower interest rates to... make more money available to corporations.

Will corporations make more jobs and raise wages? If the past 8 years are any example, no. Corporations and investors, stung by the corporate and investor excesses around the turn of the century, and now in the housing excesses, and because of increasing international competition, are very hesitant to burden themselves with the increased expenses of labor. The Fed economic stimulus ability, which is generally effective in that sector, has maxed out and exposed the limits of that method. People in the last half of 2007 borrowed money that they can't earn, running up credit card debt at high rates. People's money is going to interest, increased medical premiums (if there insurance isn't cancelled), oil, and the resulting higher cost of products. Those with the capacity to purchase homes (exceeds 2005 levels) are biding their time waiting on market conditions (prices dropping, better interest rates). Remember the "Tipping Point" theory that educates us on how small changes actually cause major changes when conditions are right on the brink? (See suggested reading at the end.) I believe what we are seeing is that a steadily growing portion of our people simply have no money to buy homes and products.

The economy is difficult to maintain and mostly misunderstood. Politicians historically used political ploys to try and influence the economy. The economy was a political football, and things like the money supply were manipulated for political reasons, usually bowing to pressure to keep constituents happy. It was a bad system. Then the reigns of economic control were given to "The Fed." Government was rendered powerless to affect the economy, and so began the political chant that "the government can do nothing about the economy." Well, that's a myth. First of all, ~20% of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is spent by the US Government. That has major impact. The government influences where 20% of our production worth goes.

Every decision that the government makes influences our economy. When the government builds a bridge, the money goes to construction. When the government funds medical programs, the money goes to the medical community... Every government action puts money somewhere, and causes that sector to prosper or decline.

We are hearing nothing from the candidates about the economy - number 1 priority among the people, deafening silence from the candidates. Secret: stimulating only the wealthy and the corporate world makes that sector stronger, but doesn't give people purchasing power. It is a completely out of balance idea that will cave in on itself and we will all go down together. Secret: The power to lift the economy is in the resolution of the healthcare and energy crisis, through government action. More later in this article.

Why don't we hear from the candidates? As a government, the focus is not on ways to stimulate the economy, except through tax cuts, and the so called "trickle down effect." I don't expect to hear much from the candidates about the economy for four reasons. 1) The myth that the government can do nothing. 2) Most plans call for spending, which is widely criticized by opponents and critically assessed by the OMB. So creating a plan simply opens you up for criticism about "tax and spend." 3) Planning calls for knowledge about economics, and most candidates are not skilled in that area. 4) Tax cuts are not likely to help and would leave the government without enough funding to get things done. 5) Most new ideas envision unknown paths, so effective planning is difficult and meets staunch criticism. (The fifth reason was a bonus reason. I can count.)

Why do I say that the power to lift the economy is in the resolution of the healthcare and energy crisis. 1) Because these are acute problems that need resolved (and every problem is an opportunity). 2) There are effective ways to stimulate the economy through these sectors through government action that will benefit the economy.

The government does not have a good record of creating economic growth. Too many politicians have swallowed the poison that the government has no influence on the economy. So government action is too often influenced by (you guessed it, the rich and powerful special interest groups) into give-away programs to those who don't need it, like the oil companies. These commonly backfire. Just today I received an offer to increase my electric bill substantially so I can say I am using "green energy." The utility can guarantee that I'm "offsetting" energy use somewhere in the US, and they get Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). My first thought was the lack of accountability in a system that is so convoluted that everything happens completely out sight. Would I simply be paying for something the electric company was already doing? Why is the electric company not investing directly in green energy? Humph! I want to know that my money is being matched by theirs to build a renewable energy resource that will supply my electricity. Without their investment, they have no vested interest in success or efficiency. REC sounds like a money chase.

Why am I so distrustful? Unfortunately programs in which the government subsidizes part of the cost of the system only become a windfall for manufacturers, sellers, and installers, who simply pass the actual price to the customer and pocket the government subsidy or waste it on inefficient efforts. For example in the 1980s government subsidized solar companies were using local sales and installation people to cover entire states, and putting in $500.00 worth of material for $7000.00 forced air solar systems. The government paid half: $3500.00, leaving the buyer with a $3500.00 loan. These produced approximately 1000 - 2000 Watts of energy for less than 12 hours a day - they would never pay for themselves even at half the price. It was a government endorsed boondockle that probably set back the use of solar energy.

Government subsidies may be partially effective, but they are giveaways and subject to total inefficiency and waste. There is a better way. In the free market, because of competition, bidders have to be efficient, satisfy customers, and provide low prices. If you take that route, you avoid the insanity caused by give-away programs.

Renewable energy investment - creating a better economy

In the 1960s we envisioned solar power as one day being the main power source. Solar is very viable, but for one method, solar panels, research has not developed panels that are efficient enough. Solar cells convert sunlight directly into electricity, but efficiency is only around 12% and current research may bring it only to 18%. This means that it takes a much larger area covered with solar panels to get the results you want. But solar cells aren't the only viable method of converting energy. Passive solar methods that convert light directly to heat energy work well. And there are other methods for converting and storing solar energy.

What will change the nation's over-dependence on oil? The growing energy crisis from the excessive use of oil is characterized by hysteria and market manipulation. Oil has become a "futures" commodity, so the price has little to do with supply and demand, responding instead to world political developments, and to supply maintenance issues that potentially could affect supply. It would be in Iran's best interest to keep the world on the edge of political turmoil, just to keep the price of oil up. Iran recognizes the value of their oil and is converting their nation's energy supply to nuclear power.

The price of oil is harming the US (and European) consumer money supply and the cost of goods. Purchasing a house for most people normally puts them right on the edge of financial viability, and they depend on controlling expenses and a rising income to make ends meet. It makes a severe impact on your ability to buy a house or other goods when your energy bill doubles or quadruples, and the price of other products rise because of the price of oil. Affordability isn't changing much. Corn alcohol looked like a good alternative, but as expected by many, the use of corn alcohol fuel is now making food more expensive. Alternatives, such as cellulose conversion look more appealing because of the supply of wood material from lumber production. We have brilliant scientists and plenty of raw material... but we're not having much progress on finding alternative fuels. The focus just isn't there.

Part of the problem is leadership and direction. We don't have a good energy policy. The other problem is the market and related market impact. Solar energy is plentiful, but US technology is more expensive than foreign. Development costs are high and the market demand just isn't there except in specialized applications. Markets benefit from knowing that things are going in a certain direction (meaning investment will pay off), and from demand (the market will pay, and there can be competitive gains from the efficiency of mass production). What can the government do?

The government has the opportunity to become a major market stimulus through efforts to resolve energy problems. For example, there could (should) be an initiative to "convert" all state lighting to solar by 2010, including highway and office lighting, all state operated vehicles by 2012, and 50% of all state heating and air conditioning. We have hundreds of thousands of miles of superhighway space that could support solar collectors or other green energy, so space is not lacking. All commercial and residential lighting could be targeted by 2015. What would be the result? Competitive market forces would step up to supply solar and other green energy. This would result in less demand for oil, lower oil prices, less oil consumption, reduce the greenhouse effect and other environmental impact, lower energy prices after startup costs, and make possible technology sales to other countries with development costs already covered so the US could be more competitive.

The government could stimulate production of a combination of passive solar (light shines in to light and heat the building), direct solar supply (solar panels and storage on site), remote solar energy production (solar panels in another location which use the electric grid), wind and geothermal collection, and remote energy storage (hydroelectric storage, other electromechanical storage, and batteries).

Is solar energy a workable concept? "About 660 homes and other buildings in San Francisco already have solar installations. Officials said they hope to bring the number up to 10,000 over the next decade by cutting property owners' out-of-pocket costs by half, if not more." - CNN

Is the natural physical power concept viable? In the 1980s, in a cold and windy city near Chicago, one successful area home builder was building homes that were so efficient that he guaranteed that heating and cooling costs would be no more than $1.00 per year. They were large beautiful homes, two story, above ground, and used a combination of passive solar and good insulation and sealing. If you are familiar with Chicago's ferocious wind and frigid winter temperatures, you understand that the concept is very viable. No solar panels were used - it was a strictly passive solar approach. A quick search of available technology shows that we know volumes about energy conservation and production - we just don't use it. Builders primarily build for low cost, quick construction, and quick sales, not energy efficiency. The government has to require or motivate such efforts because builders and buyers almost always go for the bottom dollar. That's one of the side effects of competition.

If the government places orders for their own use, they get the product at competitive prices (bids) and the product supply system will become established and more efficient. Other buyers will benefit from the government lead. You stimulate business and make it competitive primarily by doing business, not by subsidizing it unless that is the only way. Without leadership, the free market will continue to slowly create energy that maximizes utility profits without regard for the source. The government has to be an instigator of change.

Medical care - creating a better economy

Similar to the way in which the government can stimulate alternative energy production and resolve a major energy crisis, the medical care crisis can also be resolved by using this approach. Everyone is unhappy with the current status of medical care. The system is pricing itself out of business and losing customers who either drop insurance or forego care because they can't afford it. Those who pay for care have to pay for those who ride for free, through fee increases. Physicians are sick of the time consuming maze of insurance regulation of their practice, and they want some form of simplified universal coverage. The US medical system's ability to provide any kind of care is steadily decreasing.

Despite efforts to keep medical prices known and sane, if you have had medical procedures done in the last 20 years you know that 1) the hospital almost won't give you a price for the procedure - if you can even find someone to ask. You are just stuck with the bill. 2) The insurance company will make you go to a participating hospital in their network, which may not be where your physician practices. 3) The physician has to check with both the insurance company and the hospital to see which drugs are on their approved formulary, and how many physicians can assist, frustrating the physician and eating up a bunch of expensive time better used for other things.

If you don't have insurance... well you may not be able to afford the procedure, you may neglect care until the condition becomes more expensive to treat or it is too late, or you may be stuck with a horrible mountain of debt that will terrorize you for the rest of your life - it may simply not be worth it. The nursing profession doesn't pay enough to attract enough people, and registered nurses are frustrated with having to spend most of their time doing paperwork instead of caring for patients. We have a growing crisis in obesity, type II diabetes, and coronary artery disease. If this all adds up to premium health care for the US people, then we have a very solid belief in neglect, indirect abuse, torture and death.

I don't believe this is what the US people intend, but it is what we get. The powers that be insist on playing for maximum money in what is supposed to be a compassionate system. This country is founded not just on individual rights, as some promote, but on what we can do together for the common good.

What can the government do? There are several areas that the government can address to bring down the costs of medical care while helping to create a much more efficient system. The system is soon going to be flooded with the expensive burden of obesity related problems. More and more medical science is finding that early treatment for most conditions is the most effective and efficient treatment - it costs less because it prevents worsening of the conditions. Preventive medicine can save us billions and billions in the future, besides preventing untold suffering.

Hospitals are one of the most expensive places to get treatment. Treatment can be provided much more efficiently in medical centers and even in the home by visiting specialists.

New technology costs are the single most inflationary component in the annual double-digit rise in medical costs.

The physician's business model doesn't support what people need. Physicians run a business. They have to pay the cost of supplies they keep on hand and the personnel that do treatments, interviews, and keep the records and arrange visits and medications. Insurance companies waste physicians time and costs payers money. The cost of paperwork and calls alone account for ~10% of the cost of medical care. Preventive medicine currently can't be done by physicians. Physicians estimate that the burden of doing preventive medicine and chronic care would add nine hours onto their day. Forced by the insurance companies and market economics, the profession is based on the number of patients that they can move through their office, and they can treat only acute disease, not long term chronic disease or prevention. Every additional burden that they take on means adding staff and raising prices.

Individualized medicine will be the next major movement in medicine. It has to be. For example, physicians currently throw various medications at hypertensive patients until they find one that sticks. Physicians currently don't test for the cause of bacterial or viral infections, or many other conditions. Testing is expensive and the insurance companies discourage it. They wait to see if the condition worsens to justify doing tests.

Doctors literally have no clue why 80% of their hypertensive patients are hypertensive. The indicator of hypertension is high blood pressure, (bp over 140/90 and other risk factor assessments)). The body's control of bp is a very complicated system. All that physicians currently can do is throw medications at it to bring bp down. Every physician will throw out the same platitudes: watch your dietary salt, lose weight, and exercise. None of these will hurt anyone, but none of these may actually lower bp. If serum cholesterol is slightly high, as a matter of course they may prescribe a cholesterol reducing drug, as if statins (which affect the liver) are great for you. The jury is out - statins haven't been in use long enough for studies to show long-term impact (although a recent correlational study raised the possibility that statins may reduce the risk of cancer by 25%). But none of these things may affect the real cause of the hypertension, and the condition usually worsens.

Hypertensive patients seem to be automatically treated for coronary artery disease (CAD) and atherosclerosis (a build up of fat (plaque, which may include calcium) in the arteries), instead of arteriosclerosis (hardening of the arteries). The high rate of clogged arteries in the US seems to circumvent the need for further testing, forgetting that the population is aging, and the patient is often made to feel it is his fault for his lifestyle. If it is atheroslerosis, lifestyle changes fortunately can halt or even reverse the progression of the disease. But most people's bp naturally rises with age, and this is largely due to other natural processes having to do with the loss of artery flexibility and thickening of the artery walls, fluid retention in cells, kidney disease, sensors in the brain, neurotransmitter levels and receptors, and probably changes in balance in the renin/angiotensin system, not necessarily CAD and atherosclerosis.

Salt intake has always been a concern as it is part of the bp regulatory system. One in four people are salt sensitive - they retain water apparently because it takes additional minerals to move the water through their cells and the kidneys from removing enough salt. Dietary salt in prepared food adds considerably more salt to diets. The aorta (heart artery) stiffens with age much more so than muscle arteries, and excess salt is thought to accellerate aortic stiffness. Recent studies have shown that excess salt causes an exchange of ions in the artery linings, leaving calcium deposits. While calcium is essential to overall health, its presence in artery walls and fat plaque basically creates cement, and techniques to remove it are very controversial (chelation). So salt may be a long-term contributor to hypertension and stenosis. The bad news is that despite good intentions, the medical advice to restrict salt intake isn't effective for short term bp control in many people. The good news is that people who change their dietary regimen to the DASH diet (which restricts salt and other things) almost universally have significant drops in bp, and long-term salt restriction may slow stiffening of the arteries.

The individualized aspect of medicine is cheated by the myth that the condition of hypertension is actually being treated and further tests are too expensive to do. There is of course much truth to that. But technology and the ability to treat are negatively impacted by this lack of knowledge. The fact is, research is ongoing and the medical community doesn't yet know that much about the causes and treatments. But why treat someone with medicine and lifestyle changes for disease states that aren't present? Despite the difficulty in treating the disease, it is possible to lower bp. A drug that decreases efferent sympathetic neuronal firing in arteries is often very effective, but the side effects of interfering with neurotransmitters can be really difficult to live with for some. How is the medical profession ever going to begin addressing the cause of hypertension if they never look at it? Drug companies are researching and treating the bp control mechanism, not the underlying disease state, and patients often end up on four medications, each of which can only lower bp by 5 to 15 points each. Correction is very expensive, while prevention may be very inexpensive. (It is important to note that CAD, atherosclerosis, and other conditions such as organ scarring and failure, may develop as a direct result of hypertension, so it is best to treat it with preventive medications.) Important note: This questioning should not be taken as medical advice - if the world depended on me for medical advice, half the world would probably be dead.

In the areas of bacteriology and virology, doctors are more and more frequently misdiagnosing deadly diseases, such as Lime Disease. We live in a world where exposure to all bacteria and viruses is high. Population density, travel, and lack of sanitary practices makes contact with dangerous bacteria and viruses likely. The deadly "flesh eating disease" is commonly found on many public environmental surfaces such as doors. It is simply that there is no break in the skin for the infection to start, that saves people.

A rare cold virus, adenovirus 14, is turning into killer pneumonia. It isn't being recognized early enough for what it is. So far, outbreaks have been localized, but in Oregon 1035 people contracted the disease in 2007, and 21% who contract it don't survive. It isn't just the very young, old, and infirm that the virus kills, it is otherwise healthy individuals. The virus is everywhere in the local areas it infects, and spreads through environmental surfaces and the air. The flue shot does not protect against it. The symptoms are the same as for every other cold - nothing really distinguishes it to make it is easy to recognize. Without testing, the virus is misdiagnosed and it kills. Since people commonly don't treat colds through a physician, and they go to work, school, and other public places with the cold, contagion is inevitable.

Another type of disease is gaining ground - the hospital born mutant superbugs, such as MRSA (methicillin resistant staphylococcus aureus). Diseases in hospitals and other medical facilities (or care centers for the aged and infirm), have greater opportunity to mutate and spread. They do not respond to antibiotics, and can cause death. Hospitals typically recognize the particular forms of disease commonly occurring in their environment. (Potent mixtures of several antibiotics have been successful in treating some variations of this bug.)

These are just some of the current health challenges that will eventually demand that individual testing take place for most medical conditions. The current medical philosophy of evidence based (it works) therapy will have to give way to individually definitive medicine that is first preventive, and then reactive to disease sates. Neither the insurance companies nor physicians are set up to support this, and will be a major obstacle to getting it done, even if they want it. Another obstacle is laboratory testing. Currently it may take days to get lab results because a lab that is prepared to do specialized testing may be thousands of miles away.

The government can stimulate new medical approaches, and spark into life companies that are economically successful and save us money. Chronic conditions, which affect many uninsured people at higher rates, are most effectively treated in clinics that specialize in such treatment. Preventive care can be nurtured through centers that specialize in preventive care, addressing collective audiences instead of individuals. (This is a daunting task - it is very difficult to persuade people to take care of themselves even with effective education.) A collective medical care plan that provides reductions or increases in premiums based on life-style choices can help motivate people. Including chronic and preventive care in a medical care system would limit future costs.

The government can stimulate the tech economy and bring down rapidly rising medical costs by bringing market forces into this arena. Requiring more frequent and more definitive tests would cut the costs of treatment, and reduce the costly progression of disease. Hospitals now sometimes request unnecessary tests just to pay for their equipment. Testing needs to cease being a dirty word. People need to know what the cause of their disease is so that it can be treated effectively and so the medical community can see its challenges and address them. If more testing is done, economies of scale and market competition will bring down the costs of medical equipment and tests. It's a win-win for testing facilities, equipment and reagent manufacturers, physicians, people, and costs.

Another major area needing drastic revision is in the area of insurance and record keeping. Ten percent of a medical staff, usually highly skilled people are spending their time debating with insurance companies and creating endless paper records and requests. Records need to be centralized for easy access by authorized personnel (HIPAA compliant), and easy to create through computers and hand-held devices. There should not be an endless number of procedures and medications restricted by each insurer and hospital formulary. Choice is great, but the administrative load caused by this variability is ridiculous.

One potential approach that incorporates all of these areas is to bid for corporate provision (such as doctor's groups) for community medical centers that specialize in prevention, treatment of chronic disease, record keeping, patient education (explaining medical procedures and the medical insurance and Medicare/Medicaid systems and what they cover), patient advocacy, insurance administration, and laboratory testing. This would be a central point for getting people insured, making sure that they get quality and effective care and aren't neglected or scammed, getting them referred to the right doctors or hospitals, and taking care of tests. No doubt many existing independent labs, chronic care facilities, and medical professionals would like to inhabit such a different and challenging facility. The facility would have the critical mass necessary to obtain technology and to do effective medicine efficiently. It would be a much sounder place to incorporate some kind of approach to universal health care.

World leadership

The US has been a world leader for centuries. Our Constitution has been a template for most of the countries that have adopted a democratic style government based on freedom. Our culture infects almost every other country, usually for good. Our educational system, faulty as it is, has helped create preeminent people and leaders in science, arts, and ethics. Our push toward greatness has put people into outer space, led moral agreements like the Geneva Convention, helped millions of people in need around the world, and held out a beacon of hope for liberty for people and governments around the world. Where has our leadership role gone?

Every culture stands by what it believes in. For example, the French, having learned a hard lesson from their efforts in Vietnam and Algeria, the residue of colonialism, felt it was better to use diplomacy in such situations as influencing Sadam Hussein in Iraq. The French took a pounding for that. The US, felt it was better to intervene militarily (apparently this was the original and only Bush strategy). The US took a pounding around the world for that. Somewhere between the two positions something right might have been worked out. Might have.

President G. W. Bush pushed ahead with an Iraq strategy that wasn't thought through and seems to have included no real diplomacy of any kind (except gunboat diplomacy, which is threatening people with a stick, and which has notably been historically regarded as a failure). Hussein was recalcitrant and thumbed his nose at the world... but past world efforts had influenced him as shown in that he had eliminated his weapons of mass destruction years before the invasion. Bush failed to recognize the bluster of the Persian world for what it is. Misunderstanding other cultures and how to work with them is not the sign of a great leader. At least rescuing the Iraqi people and the region from a cruel dictator and establishing a non-threatening democracy was a noble and worthwhile cause, however misdirected.

Leadership is always a tenuous thing. The US does not have a corner on any endeavor. Science around the world is progressing at a rapid rate and the US has already lost the preeminent position in a number of areas. In the arts, competition keeps US artists on the cutting edge, but fewer people gain artistic opportunities because the arts have been largely removed from the public schools. On a recent trip to France, I noticed that French advertising has become minimalistic, lacking the polish of US Madison Avenue. Not to be too critical: Minimalism isn't necessarily a bad thing, but the polished stuff makes more of an impression. I know this from personal experience in creating advertising and watching people react to my and other's sketches of ads - if it doesn't look good, people reject it. Say what you want, but people vote with their feet. Anyway, I know the French will rebound.

The US contains 50 States that cover more area than all of the countries in Europe together. For the US to be losing a leadership position is a sad sign. But what has sent us down this road is the unwillingness of Bush to cooperate with European leaders on things as broad as the handling of Iraq, the Kyoto Accords on the environment, and research on stem cells. In the face of a protracted war in Iraq, stem cell research rivals or is ahead of the US around the world, and we have a global warming crisis. In hindsight, Bush might have listened to other leaders. But he chose to stand alone, making himself as popular around the world as former French President de Gaulle, who had similar characteristics. As a result, the US has had a major loss of standing in the world, as well as taking an economic pounding. The exchange rate between the dollar and Euro should be 1 to 1. But today if you spend €150.00 in Europe, you get $100.00 worth of goods, and other countries (India) are turning their backs on the dollar as a weak currency. Other countries are raising questions about the advisability of investing in the US.

Leadership is not a popularity contest, but it doesn't mean standing alone like some self appointed paragon of virtue. Leadership involves persuading people with sound arguments and reason, and working in a spirit of cooperation to get things done, while upholding great ideals. Our leadership is in the dumps for good reason. We need a leader who will bring it back.

The political paradigm

Thankfully I am hearing less meaningless political statements about "tax and spend liberals." Bush, a Republican, has outspent just about every President and Congress with war expenses that could have sent us all to college or provided health care for all of us. He made his choices.

Are we liberals, conservatives, or what? We are mostly moderates with leanings one way or another. I made a chart recently that tries to indicate where we are, and the extremes. On the far left are the liberals, in the middle the moderates which include progressives and conservatives, and on the far right the totalitarians.

At the far left is the mythical liberal. Liberals kind of died out after the 1970s due to political policy failures. God bless them, liberals are wonderful idealists and humanitarians, but not realists, who seem to think that throwing money at problems (usually helping handouts) will make problems disappear. They tend to raise taxes to cover the cost of ineffective policies. They tend to think that government has the solution to every problem, so they create large bureaucracies within government to administer gigantic give-away programs. Government becomes bloated under liberals, there are a lot of runaway entitlement programs that the government can't control, and people become very dependent on the government for their general welfare. No one can afford this type of government.

I don't know of anyone currently in Congress who is a truly a liberal, despite some "liberal" organizations giving some congressmen high approval ratings, probably just for being humanitarians.

In the middle, somewhat left, are the progressive moderates. Progressives find new and positive solutions to problems - or they try to. They tend to be visionary, or at least motivated more by idealism than others. Their solutions tend to be difficult to delineate because they are discovering new paths to solutions. So a lot of us say, "Huh? Well what would something like that cost?" But without the progressives, no progress would be made and old problems would fester and worsen forever.

Currently the Democrats seem to harbor more of the progressive Congressmen, and the public seems to be very tired of several intransigent problems and are swinging to the left, becoming more progressive.

In the middle and somewhat to the right, are the conservative moderates. Conservatives prefer the status quo on most things. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." They are sometimes regressive in that they curtail runaway programs and they slow the pace of change. Big government frightens them, as it probably should. Their issues tend to be well delineated because the paths they tread are well known. They are very hesitant to take on new issues. The idea of increasing the burden of government is a show-stopper for them. They tend to be incratic in that they are not informed from outside, but only from inside by what has been already tried and formulated. If it weren't for conservatives, we would never strip away the excesses present in many programs or end anything that is ineffective. Without conservatives, the pace of change would be so rapid that none of us could adjust.

One conservative candidate, in debate, recently speared another about his alleged changes. He is a true conservative, holding his positions right to the last. Apparently conservatives are born knowing what they know and never vary from that. I wince every time a candidate makes this accusation. Most of us learn from experience. President Reagan changed from being a Democrat to a Republican. I like this particular conservative a lot, but it raised the question of whether he is right for presidential office if he doesn't learn from experience and change.

On the far right are the totalitarians. For the totalitarian their mode tends to be "My way or no way." They believe in their particular view, and have no flexibility. They use a heavy handed veto, refuse to cooperate, won't bend on certain issues, and try to dictate policy. They tend to see issues as black and white with no depth to them. They tend to have less of a social focus, and appeal more to principles that they believe in and promote. We all tend to be a little totalitarian at times, but true totalitarians are noted by their uncooperativeness, single-minded and unrealistic solutions, and stubbornness.

For example, when one current candidate said that he would send all 12 million illegal aliens back to their countries, I knew that understanding the situations, and a compassionate and realistic answer were beyond his grasp and that some sense of unbreakable principle clouded his judgment. The compassion taught by religion and our culture was not in him. Given his background, I knew then that he would just be another G. W. Bush in office.

The nature of change in politics

We embrace change and then pull back. The pendulum swings one way and then another. We test, we advance, we evaluate, we slow down and adjust to the new. Progressive, regressive. It may be presented as a see-saw and waffling when couched in political rhetoric, but this is the time honored way of moving forward.

Political observers have recently noted that once a politician and an idea take hold, such as Reagan and Reagonomics, very little new gets initiated by that party for decades. Politicians mostly just ride the wave and try to duplicate the past. Eventually the limits of the approach are recognized and the promoters become stale and ineffective.

Reagonomics was a revolution in economic thinking. It helped put an end to socialistic ideas that are noble but ineffective, and the resulting bloated governments and bureaucracies that result, which make us all less financially sound rather than truly helping anyone. Margaret Thatcher in England, and others, embraced the idea and much of economic policy was changed to a healthier model and improved economies. Inflation, which is highly destructive, became controlled. Unemployment ceased to be a major problem in Western countries, typically running less than 4% (instead of the historical and unremitting ~30% in many countries).

Reagonomics is not the final economic theory. Capitalism has tendencies that tend to marginalize many. Currently the US is struggling with a widening economic gap between those who are very wealthy and those who are struggling. Around 1% of the population earns 21% of the income, while 25% don't know how they are going to make ends meet. It is thought by many that what we are now seeing is a "race to the bottom," in which competitive pressure will drive down wages for most people. 47 million citizens (16% of us) can't afford to get into the health care system. Ethnic minorities, especially blacks, fill our prisons at a much higher rate than whites, and this is correlated with economics in black areas. (Note: a correlation does not mean cause, but many widely feel that economic conditions is a significant cause.) The fact is highly significant that if the people don't get wages, they can't buy products to support the economy. There is a reason the US economy is currently faltering.

Good economic policy is the key to social improvement. What we see in the last eight years is Republicans coasting on worn out ideas. The idea of "small government" has let our government slip into ineffective government that can't keep our infrastructure (and the public) safe, can't properly screen the border because of too few agents, can't properly screen incoming food, toys, and other consumer goods because of too few FDA employees, and lets social problems fester without a resolution.... In fact, people are being assisted much less today than they were in the 1990s.

To date, no candidate has stepped forward with any economic plan, yet the economy is a key issue and the key to future progress. We need a candidate who both understands economics and understands how to make the economy better without killing the goose.

The political party is not the issue. Spending typically increases more under Republican administrations (who typically say they want to conserve our cash) than under the Democrats. Plus, the Bush administration, by doing a very poor job of planning and executing the Iraq war and peace effort, have cost us billions and put our economy in peril. We now have a lot to overcome.

Would the candidate who knows how to lead change, how to get a mandate from the people, how to select the right change, how to control the progress of change so it doesn't destroy us or fail, please step forward? Ah, yes, here they come in lock step. Didn't I know.

Update 1

Change is becoming an uneasy word as jitters about the economy force people toward more conservative ground. Ironically it is the ultra-conservative policy that has gotten us into this fine mess:

• Monetary and regulatory policies of the Republican dominated government.
• The excesses in the mortgage industry.
• Higher business productivity and profitability at the expense of labor rather than because of labor.

Who can get us out of this mess?

John McCain is one of America's favorites. He has the strength of character to turn away from strict party control and do what is best for the nation. He has the proven power to bring people with wide views to a consensus with unique and even visionary solutions. He has a conservative edge to him that is less likely to adopt policies that are over the top and to let things get out of control. He can control the reigns of the major changes that are likely. He is a seasoned politician with excellent foreign relations experience. He is the one Republican who is likely to be able to work with a Democratic dominated congress. He understands war and is unlikely to keep us in military conflict. It would be hard to lose with McCain.

But does McCain have a chance? The Democrats are highly likely to sweep the congress this election, and gain major majorities. In that sweep, a Republican candidate is unlikely to win the Presidency. Change is badly needed, and even in conservative times, people are not likely to stay with the failures of the status-quo.

Hillary Clinton is another of America's favorites. She has as even more detractors among conservatives than McCain does. The ultra-conservative vote is probably a bit of a wash in the overall vote between McCain, Clinton, and Obama, although McCain is likely to garner somewhat more of their votes simply because he is Republican. Whether Clinton is new blood or not, she has that air of "same old politics" and every time her campaign slips into negativity, she shows that side of her experience and the public turns away. In the past, negative politics won elections. For once electioneering is seeing the bad side of mud slinging - it doesn't really work in anyone's favor this time, in fact it works against people. People want real change, not more of the same. There is no proof the Clintons have accepted this new reality and tearing each other down is likely to lose all Democratic chances at the presidency and keep more Republicans in the Congress.

Clinton offers the badly needed change in direction that the country needs. She is likely to reverse the ultra-conservative policies that are driving our economy into the ground, and drive the quest for things that the nation is badly in need of, such as universal health coverage. Unfortunately she doesn't seem to offer any needed changes in foreign policy, such as the ability to communicate with those countries who oppose us. Until we hear otherwise, she is offering more of the same, except to get us out of Iraq. If she can stay away from the habits of the past, in dirty politics and foreign policy, it would be hard to lose with Clinton at the helm.

Barak Obama has won the hearts of many, becoming America's darling if not the favorite, and he also offers the badly needed change in direction that the country needs. He lacks the bad habits that Clinton has. He offers a fresh but unproven approach to things domestic as well as foreign. Both he and Clinton are likely to have a fresh batch of congressmen to work with who can be molded into a voting block with the momentum to get new things done. With enough experienced legislators remaining in Congress, Obama is unlikely to get legislation passed that will ultimately be harmful. Most Congressmen today know that you have to fund what you pass, you can't create give-away programs without ultimately hurting everyone, you can't bloat the bureaucracy without creating a runaway train, and you have to back up proposals with experience from past projects. Hopefully they won't lose sight of these.

Obama offers a vision of the future that people can seize and hang onto, and hopefully Clinton won't destroy that vision with negative campaigning in a selfish grasp for what is good for only the Clintons. That would be unconscionable and would likely lose her the election even if she got the nomination.

I'm enjoying the humor of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, the ultra-conservative Republican entertainment committee. In the proto-typical style of the "my way or no way" authoritarians, they have actually decided to punish McCain for not being as conservative as they are, by encouraging voters to vote for Clinton. They hope that a democratic government will prove itself unworthy, and prove them right. It's interesting how the reality of the move towards the Democrats is getting interpreted as something they are wishing for. What a spin. What superb reasoning!

In a maniacal attempt to keep the Democratic nomination contest open for as long as possible, they are encouraging Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary to skew the results. What is even more interesting is the coverage given these two by the mainstream news services, as if they were actually anything more than light entertainment. I don't actually listen to these two unless they are somehow shoved in my face, and it's always a laugh.

What these two are doing, if they are accomplishing anything at all, is creating the opportunity for much more publicity for the Democratic candidates and their agenda. The longer this contest goes on, the more face time the candidates get in the news. Nothing beats publicity. Right now there are at least two news channels doing the "all politics all the time" routine, and what do they focus on? Controversy. Where is the controversy? Obama and Clinton. McCain is simply out of the news.

Great work, Coulter and Limbaugh. By the 2012 election I expect to see your names listed in the Democratic party. (Watch out, Democrats, the court jesters are coming. They have been drinking poison and hoping the Democrats will die. Joke's on them.) Well, this is publicity for them, too, albeit limited, but poking a little fun at them was fun.

Given the length of the campaign, Obama and Clinton have a unique opportunity to get their message in front of the American people. That message is constructive change that radically differs from what has gone on for over 8 years, and meets the challenges that are before us. Obama's challenge is to remain above the mud slinging and spell things out so that we can see presidential competence in him. Clinton's challenge is to avoid a mud slide that will wreck the democratic train. Let the best agenda win, not the one who can sling mud the hardest.

This race is shaping up to be as difficult to win as American Idol this year. Great offerings, great talent, and highly competitive. It is difficult to see any player go away. Despite our problems, the future actually looks hopeful.

Suggested reading:
Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, by William J. Baumol, Robert E. Litan, and Carl J. Schramm.
Collapse - How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, by Jared Diamond.
The Tipping Point - How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, by Malcom Gladwell.
The Commanding Heights - The Battle for the World Economy, by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanslaw.
Understanding the Process of Economic Change, by Douglass North.
The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism, by John C. Bogle.
Right-sizing Government - making government effective, by Dorian Scott Cole
The Economy - State of the Onion 2007, by Dorian Scott Cole.

- Scott

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